He started dramatically. When one of the planes on 9-11 crashed into the Pentagon, he was in the building in his office on the side of and quite close to where the plane hit. He remarked that in all his years in the Navy and having served in combat, that was the closest he was to being killed. For him 9-11 was a hinge of history, and the clearest sign that the post-cold war world ushered in after the fall of the Berlin Wall completely changed.
I personally tend to see the world in terms of how we have improved - longevity, technology enabling communications, advances in medicine etc.
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| St. George and the dragon |
His prescriptions for leadership in this new world were what one would expect - innovation, speed, transparency and collaboration.
Those might be good indeed for those of us guiding our respective businesses.
However, I was not so sure the prescriptions were sufficient for us to meet the threats he so effectively described as overall societies. In other words, what reformed public policy, what evolved culture, what new institutions do we need to meet these challenges at scale?
At the end of World War II, we had Truman, Acheson, Marshall and Kennan who answered the call for how to deal with a transformed world then.
I am not sure that we see leaders of such stature in leadership positions on the world scene yet.
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Seems to me that we have to be better at meeting people where they are... rather then trying to prescribe "one size fits all" strategies. If someone has grown up in a culture where women and men are segregated, traditional dress is respected and strict rules of conduct are enforced - speed, transparency, innovation and collaboration may be highly threatening. Whether we are talking about a Taliban or a trans-gender teen, those of us seeking to lead our civilization to a better place would do well to begin walking in other's mocassins before passing judgement or taking "corrective action".
Good thoughts! Agree that the admiral‘s prescriptions are necessary but not sufficient. In particular we need to rebuild public trust in our institutions so that the citizens can put country ahead of ideology or identity
"In other words, what reformed public policy, what evolved culture, what new institutions do we need to meet these challenges at scale?"
Good question…
"At the end of World War II, we had Truman, Acheson, Marshall and Kennan who answered the call for how to deal with a transformed world then.
I am not sure that we see leaders of such stature in leadership positions on the world scene yet."
No we do not…
We’re adrift with no credible captain in sight…. Scary and depressing….
Good one. Is it that there is a leadership vacuum today or is the change too fast for any one to predict future as well as institutional mechanisms needed. What kind of institution can survive and operate in this rapid race to obsolescence
You are 100% correct Srini
We neither know the answer to the question nor do we see leaders who can provide answer to the question!
Thus we are at the mercy of the forces he describes ...
Btw - you are also a Navy man - correct?!
The threat of rapid paced Technological change is very real as much as the fact that the present bunch of Heads of State is not capable of handling it.
Hope the change includes a solution that mitigates it's own threat.
Heads of states do not decide.
They choose from a set of options that are created by a think tank team.
Questions are:
Is the think tank team capable enough.
Does the heads of state keep a capable think tank team or a set of incapables for a think tank team.
You are right Krishnan
But the Head of state should at least be capable of choosing the right bunch of advisors that is equipped to provide the best set of options.
Krish - as a way of thinking about this
Gandhi
Lincoln
Mandela
They Did not have such think tanks - and two of them were heads of state and the third in one virtually ...
Your thoughts?
Today's heads of state may not be at that calibre.
Each of the 3 that you referred had a burning desire to attain freedom, abolish slavery, attain freedom respectively.
That drove them, into action that attracted a collective action from others.
They also had their think tanks. See their movies you'll observe.
Good thoughts
In my note I mention Kennan.
He was such a think tank as you recommend. He was the one who developed the containment strategy for the Cold War
Also factoid - he sent that entire essay that laid out the strategy via telex ...!!!!
Interesting notes on Admiral Stavridis ‘s speech Surya. Cyber threats are challenging even for a person of his stature. Good idea to Accommodate cultural differences in work place
there is no comfortable feeling when I look at the possibility of drones and robots fighting future wars. It would be your AI capabilities vs mine. So intelligent algorithms would dominate warfare ?
On the social side, work which was the bed rock of identity for humans would no longer provide meaning to human lives as intelligent machines gradually take over.
Human beings are not capable of handling so much of idleness and entertainment options.
The mass of data available to govts n pvt corporations would render citizens liable to both manipulation n blackmail making him to submit to Corp and govt authority on an un-precedents scale. What can save this over populated planet ?
Srini algorithms have already taken over warfare. The guys shooting down the bad guys from far off is a reality
You have put up a good note on Stavridis that ensued a nice exchange. I am not on the pessimistic side though.
My thoughts on the exchange;
1. The cyberwarfare and human remote controlled battles closer to reality notwithstanding, I think the *threat to humanity from war* remains at the same levels as it has been for 70 years since the nuclear bomb was first used. The advent of new technologies doesn’t heighten the irresponsibility neither does it increase the scale of destruction. So while this may implicate shift in balance of power, not in the degree of danger.
2. Why do not we have good leaders now...
The examples cited here have been Lincoln, Gandhi, Mandela...
*These guys happened generations apart!!*
Aren’t we greedy looking for all of them at once presently?
Leaders are not only born but I believe they are propelled by a purpose (relevant for the time) and conditions...
3. In my view, the biggest threat to humanity wouldn’t be from warring nations or terrorism, but of subjugation to superior intelligence... whether it is AI or aliens...
My two cents...
We’ve already witnessed the cyber-security threats and its overarching impacts. Admiral Stavridis’s prescriptions for leadership in this transforming world seem to be right on the money. Of these, innovation and speed are natural motivators and could serve to be the driving factors for progress in nations (both developed and developing). But how many countries are truly receptive to transparency and collaboration?
my thoughts
1. The cyberwarfare and human remote controlled battles closer to reality notwithstanding, I think the *threat to humanity from war* remains at the same levels as it has been for 70 years since the nuclear bomb was first used:
Surprisingly this is how the Admiral started his speech. He said total deaths in the 20th century from
WWI , wwii & Spanish flu was 100 million deaths. The institutions we have built have stemmed that tide since WWII
His point is “new construction” of institutions is required
2. Why do not we have good leaders now... The examples cited here have been Lincoln, Gandhi, Mandela... They happened generations apart!!
A public policy expert once told me that 3 things are necessary for real change in society. A) a solution needs to have been discussed for a long time b) all sides of the political spectrum need to generally agree with the direction and c) there needs to be a severe crisis!
3. In my view, the biggest threat to humanity wouldn’t be from warring nations or terrorism:
I have been ringing the bell of AI danger for the past few years as you know from my blog posts
My two cents:
I hope my two cents plus your two cents equals five cents!!
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