Are processes in this universe, both biological and material, random or are they structured? Does the Universe behave deterministically or freely? Is our universe governed by fate or by chance? This appears to be a tricky as well as profound question.
I suppose one should not argue with Albert Einstein. He wrote very famously in a letter to Max Born in 1926 that, “at any rate, I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice.” This was of course his expressing his vexation with the whole development of Quantum Mechanics and the claim that the microscopic world can be best described through statistical probability and that just the act of the experimenter’s observation disturbs the outcome of the experiment.
Let’s explore this question a bit here. Accepting the limitations of our thinking as human beings, let’s make some reasoned arguments and analogies to address this question.
A biological example
As we have learned, DNA is the vital carrier of information in the form of genes in our bodies. For proper coupling of two strands into a DNA molecule-structure, chemicals of different kinds engage and join from one point to another. There are so many such DNA unions and so many combinations, that it is easier to predict the pattern than any one interaction.
Similarly for the formation of human life several million sperm seek out one egg. Which sperm? And depending upon which sperm, will it be a different human that emerges as a result?
Computer Program
We could imagine an expert system that is being used for a particular application, let’s say automotive repair. So the expert system is trying to diagnose the engine problem and so you can ask a question – is the engine too hot? At that level there is meaning since a human is interacting with the expert system.
By the time that question gets translated into a software program and then to bits and bytes it almost becomes incomprehensible. If we can imagine using a measurement device to catch the bits and bytes, you can imagine a series of millions of 0s and 1s flashing through the meter.
Some one who does not know about the expert system and is just looking at the meter is going to think this is highly random set of 0s and 1s.
But the person interacting with the expert system knows there is a reason.
Locally unpredictable, but globally predictable
How about if we combine chance and rules? Let’s say you draw a triangle on a piece of paper and put a dot in the center of the triangle. Then roll a dice. Depending on the number you need to place a dot half the distance to one of the three corners of the triangle. Keep repeating. One would think that the whole triangle will be covered with dots. But no, that does not happen. There are an infinite number of triangles created here. In complexity theory, this is called fractals.
We cannot predict where the next dot will be, but can predict that there will be infinite triangles.
Cause and effect
Imagine a series of dominos. The last domino falls. What caused it to fall was the previous domino, which was caused by the previous domino and so on until the first domino. In this simple experiment, one domino fell because of another domino - cause and effect.
In a more complex scenario, one case could have several effects. Example - ripple in a pond. Many ripples come from one stone.
In an even more complex scenario, many causes can have many effects (and the effects could be causes upon each other).
An example of this can be many pebbles in a pond causing many ripples. These ripples interact causing complex wave patterns on the surface of the water.
The original cause (and its problem!)
From the above example we can conclude that even though phenomenon we observe appear to be random, if you look at it from a higher level, you can identify a reason. This is why Einstein said ‘God does not play dice’.
Surely, we can derive this conclusion from the above examples – but perhaps can be misleading. Our mind cannot truly grasp infinity. We assign a symbol for it as a way of dealing with it. But the symbol is a placeholder and not the actual reality. Nevertheless to explore this question of chance vs fate, we need to deal with it.
Our whole universe is cause and effect in some sense. And the original cause is scientifically stated to be the Big Bang. However our question stops at the Big Bang. The question what happened before the Big Bang, or what caused the Big Bang does not make sense since time and space and causation came from the Big Bang.
So we are now stuck - what we seek to understand within the universe applies inside the universe not before or outside of it.
So… are we free or are we not?
To address this question we need to understand two kinds of cause & effect set-ups – two kinds of determinisms (unfortunately!)
Causal determinism – everything has a cause (our examples above)
Predictive determinism – if I know the cause, then I can predict the effect.
As you can see, the first type of determinism looks at the past and past only. The second looks at the past and then at the future.
A very important point is to be made here.
If I cannot predict, then I might say, “hey, I can’t predict – so life is all about chance.” This is what Quantum Mechanics is saying. I can’t predict at the microscopic level if a fundamental entity is a wave or a particle. So the universe is stochastic.
But I can look backward and say, “I can explain the chain of cause-effects…so it was not random after all!”
Ray Bradley, a professor of Philosophy in New Zealand, offers a way out of this paradox. He says, just because a human being at this stage of evolution cannot predict an outcome, does not mean that the outcome is not predictable.
He gives the example of a roulette wheel. We cannot predict where the ball will land on the roulette wheel. However, with advanced technology and computation that tracks the ball, its velocity, its spin and the RPM of the wheel, we may able to predict someday. (Who wants to bet against that?!)
So the problem appears to be our state of knowledge in our evolutionary process. At this stage we can’t predict…but we can get better over time.
Fine for a system, but how about sentience
I believe, all of us would be ok with the argument that the Universe is deterministic, with predictable causes and effects and that we as a human race are incapable of necessarily displaying the knowledge of it at this point in time.
However it is a whole another matter if we apply this insight to us as humans. We are sentient beings with ability to make decisions for ourselves and drive progress for ourselves and our society.
But if you think of yourself as a ‘biological system’ then there is a lot of stuff about you that is deterministic. For example you have no choice that you are a human, your skin color, your native language etc. On the other hand you are free to study engineering or business or nothing at all.
Summary
The universe and all that it contains is a very complex, interacting process. From our individual vantage, a lot of this appears random. However, if we can view it from a higher order we can understand there to be a cause and effect. However, the cause and effect rationale can lead to the unfortunate conclusion that even we as humans are deterministic systems. A way to view this however is that there is local freedom and global determinism. That is I have freedom to make my next move. But the collection of all moves of mine and my surroundings and its outcome are determined.
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