February 01, 2014

The future is ..... a tad scary!

The technological progress that we are enjoying, and its exponential progress we are experiencing all around us, represents a profound threat - as counter intuitive as that might sound.

Please allow me to explain.

Marc Goodman - Future Crimes Institute
Marc Goodman is the founder of the Future Crimes Institute and a former INTERPOL and FBI agent.  I was paying a visit to Singularity University in the NASA Research Park near San Francisco and he was one of the speakers.  Singularity is a concept created by Ray Kurzweil the CTO of Google - who says that by year 2045, machine intelligence and capabilities will overtake humans (not necessarily in a bad way according to Ray).

Marc Goodman went through a litany of threats facing us for a full ninety minutes, after which I thought it was best to take what little cash I had and stuff it into my mattress.  However, I learned listening to him that a government denominated currency like the US dollar is, 'just a political statement!'

Today - Here are some examples he shared of what has already happened in terms of crimes:

ATM Thieves:  Fake ATMs where installed at a shopping mall.  When shoppers used these ATMs, their card numbers and pin's were recorded.  They got an 'out of order' message on the ATM.  The thieves then used these numbers to withdraw cash elsewhere.

App Thieves:  Recently there was a fake HSBC app on Android.  Similar to the above example, people entered their data into it and were subsequently robbed.

Target Stores:  100 million credit card numbers were stolen just in the past month.

Telephone Network:  The Mexican drug cartel has its own installed telephone network and use autopiloted vessels to transport drugs into the US

Mumbai 2008 Attacks:  Marc Goodman was in Mumbai the second day of the attacks and was describing how the attackers had guns and PDAs and were getting directions from a command center in terms of how to navigate and where to shoot.

He talked about the dark web, which is not the web that we use on a day to day basis.  But here illegal and illicit activities take place and is perhaps even bigger than the visible web.

Tomorrow - If the above list is unpleasant, here is what is in store for us based on the new technologies that are being developed and disseminated.

Fake cops:  With 3D printing, anyone can print out fake Police Badges. They can also print guns.  How is an ordinary citizen to know the difference between a fake police badge and a real one, if someone knocks at their door?

Tailored bio weapons:  Substances can be developed that are fatal to just one person based on their DNA.  This way bio-killing can be tailored.

Gas attack:  The Japanese subway had a scary gas attack a year or two ago.  These days, the chemicals are so much more potent that the scale can be unimaginable.

Cyber weapons:  Suppose you are wearing an insulin pump.  Some guy created a radar-gun, that when pointed at a person wearing such an insulin pump and shoots at it, will accelerate the release of insulin in 24 hours rather than 2 weeks and thus be fatal to the person.

Girls around us App:  With new social media, there are apps that based on other people's FaceBook entries, can show the app user where there are girls (by name and photo) in the various coffee shops and stores around where he is.  Imagine this in the hands of a wrong guy!

Elder Abuse and Elder Fraud:  With an aging and retiring population.  This is a very high priority worry for government agencies.  Elderly citizen, by definition are sitting on nest eggs be they small or large.  And they are the most vulnerable to electronic fraud on the one hand and abuse by care givers on the other hand.    One in nine seniors reported being abused, neglected or exploited in the past twelve months.  And cognitive impairment and the need for help with activities of daily living make victims more vulnerable to financial abuse.

Bitcoin and other online currencies:  This is the point about government backed currencies being a 'political statement.'  With online currencies like bitcoin, both the web and the dark web can carry on commerce with no traceability!

CaaS Crime as service:  There are online portals available where you can order crime!

In as much as the big companies and big governments are planning excellent defenses against hackers, individuals and their identities, their information and savings are extremely vulnerable to this onslaught.

As we read this, there are thousands upon thousands of hackers and criminals and miscreants creating viruses, probing systems, planning malefeasance.   In the days of the horse buggy it was a man with a knife asking for your wallet.

We can and should take all the appropriate level headed precautions like being careful with our passwords, ensuring that we are careful what we reveal online, prudent about which institutions we use etc.

But based on the above, we can see that crime and its impact has grown exponentially.  This is the new world we live in and we need heavy investment in new techniques to keep the miscreants at bay.

Two years ago, I had written an essay titled Apogee, that described the bright side of technological development.   Unfortunately, this is the dark side of it.

The future is, perhaps to understate a little, ... a tad scary!


Notes and Readings:

Marc Goodman:  http://singularityu.org/bio/marc-goodman/

TED Talk:  http://www.ted.com/talks/marc_goodman_a_vision_of_crimes_in_the_future.html

TIME Magazine article on the Dark Web:  http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/31/the-deep-web-has-washington-worried/

Atlantic Magazine on the Dark Social:  http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/10/dark-social-we-have-the-whole-history-of-the-web-wrong/263523/

Article on the now defunct Silk Road:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2014/02/01/the-end-of-the-silk-road-for-bitcoin-millionaire-as-irs-fed-agencies-make-arrests/

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