A big thank you to so many who responded to my two questions at the beginning of the year!
The two questions were:
1. If one can set aside the noise, what are the key trend lines for the next 10 years through 2030, either economic or social or political?
2. What is the one big positive impact we can anticipate in 2021?
I received over a hundred responses from around the worlds from friends, family and colleagues in professions ranging from public policy, finance and banking, technology and manufacturing, medicine, entrepreneurship, research, academia and so on. When I synthesized the responses and eliminated duplicates, there were fifty responses to the first question and twenty to the second question. Some more "de-duping" could have been surely done - but there was enough subtle variations in the thought that I decided not to edit down further.
I have sorted out the responses in there four buckets:
A. Economic
B. Science & Technology
C. Social and
D. Political
In general, the ideas are evenly distributed between these four sections. Digital thinking dominates the list and while some ideas stayed on earth, some shot into deep space!
Thank you again and hope you enjoy this compilation. I look forward to our continued conversation on this front and am confident you will not hesitate to comment on or add to this list:
1. If one can set aside the noise, what are the key trend lines for the next 10 years through 2030, either economic or social or political?
Economic
1. Federal Reserve's super loose monetary policy and government stimulus will keep pushing the markets higher, which is already in bubble territory in some sectors
2. Continued evolution in currency and payment markets to incorporate new global balance and e-payments
3. US Dollar might end up losing its status as world’s reserve currency.
4. In the face of continued government dysfunction, the corporate sector will increasingly step-up on ESG, Diversity/Inclusion, Race/Gender, Employee, Customer, and Community Wellness, and such similar themes.
5. Capitalism with a kinder face, yet maintaining the objective of growth and profit for owners/investors/shareholders
6. There will be increasing awareness and response to the so called “longevity economy” opportunities (older workers; multi-generational work forces; products, services, and innovations)
7. There will be more “on-shoring” (less off-shoring and dependency)
8. Continued rapid growth in online shopping and food delivery (supermarkets as well as restaurants)
9. Exponential growth in digital transactions and digital currency
10. Reduced business travel will remain the norm in a post COVID-19 environment
11. Continued public sector divestment and increased foreign investment in India to drive continued economic growth
12. Structural unemployment will be an increasing challenge as automation, robotics and Artificial Intelligence will change the future of work
Science & Technology
13. Decade Long Digital Disruption - Fin-Tech, Bio-Tech, Cyber-Tech, Clean-Tech
14. Gene line editing - our capacity to alter who we are is coming soon. Ethical challenges notwithstanding, many of the diseases that torment humankind such as Alzheimer’s will be edited out of humanity’s future.
15. Expect more pandemics - but increased facility to be able to deal with them globally
16. Looking beyond Earth into space ....and potential collaboration between nations
17. There will be a real sense of urgency of addressing climate change and environmental degradation substantially elevates
18. Social media companies will be forced to acknowledge that they have a “point of view” and in so doing take on a greater “ownership” role for what appears on their platforms.
19. Technology will be an enabler and job creator but also, potentially, a to threat the jobs of the underprivileged.
20. Continued trading away of privacy - either for increased convenience or state security or both
Social:
21. Our personal interactions in person will be predominantly social and out of choice as opposed to predominantly work related, compared to the past
22. Being introvert will not be viewed as a negative trait anymore!
23. People have had a chance to rethink and will implement new priorities post-pandemic
24. Greater value on community - think people will still want to socialize… in restaurants, offices, events, etc.
25. There will be more work from home, curbside and home delivery
26. Be it corporate or individuals those with technological skills will move forward like working smart with increased focus on balance between work and personal life
27. Increased emphasize on democratization of wealth, science, technology, engineering and mathematics across the world population
28. Continued momentum in the health and wellness journey across the world with a greater focus on mental health, rather than physical due to the realization that mankind has gone a bit wonky and mentally diseased due to overload of social media
29. Enhanced sustainability-friendly behavior, whether it is enough to save the planet in time or not
30. Continued question on how do people live on the planet
31. Big emphasis on our aging population and its attendant health care needs, especially for Alzheimer’s.
32. As an area of concern, the importance of science & expertise will continue to be questioned and undermined by those seeking to corrupt democracy and gain power.
33. Widening fault lines in the social fabric due to race, religion and ideology which will take decades to heal, if ever
34. We will have more divergence between haves and have-nots, which will lead to major and perhaps even violent purges of the corrupt rich in many parts of the world.
35. Unabated spread of American style consumerism across the world
36. Social, racial and economic divides might well reach a boiling point
37. Echo chambers driven by social media will continue to even worse pernicious effects including mental health
Political:
38. World - Strong economies run by authoritarian countries challenge democracies - Battle for the dominant governing system on earth
39. World - Fight for primacy continues between nationalists and globalists and between autocrats and those promoting democratic institutions
40. World - Shortage of water nations fighting over thin lines in the sea if not many big cities will become dry in spite of floods due to rising sea levels
41. World - Social and political may try to set the new balance; however, if the social democratization does not happen, we may towards uncertain future which I cannot fathom
42. World - US will rejoin all global forums
43. China - Increased hegemony in the Asian sphere and continued increase in global power
44. US policy will dabble with socialism-lite.
45. The US will thankfully back away from authoritarian tendencies and hopefully moderates take center stage
46. Political stability can be anticipated over the next decade
47. The US, will reverse our neglect of climate change and increase the value of all efforts to reduce carbon consumption
48. In the US, a national effort to create a health care system that provides the full continuum of care.
49. In the US, Democrats will be in power for the next two terms. Democrats will increase the number of seats in the House and Senate. The usual pattern of the president's opposite party picking up seats will not hold true.
50. The US will slowly get back to normalcy, and reclaiming its charm and vaunted position in the world.
2. What is the one big positive impact we can anticipate in 2021?
Economic
1. Pent up desire for fun, travel, leisure, etc will drive economic growth in the second half of 2021
2. Getting back to new normal with vaccination and getting back to new normal and shifting in focus from trivia matters to real issues facing humanity
3. The global nature of the pandemic hopefully forces us to embrace the changes needed to make globalism work more equitably.
4. US economy will grow probably the largest increase in GDP for a long time (3+%)
Science and Technology
5. mRNA vaccines will find wider application in 2021
6. Finally controlling the pandemic could be an aspirational thing in 2021
7. COVID vaccines bring humanity back to normal.
8. We will take major steps forward in health management and manners of commercial distribution across industries.
9. In 2021, the positive effect of the vaccine (although, unfortunately, I think this will take longer than the most optimistic forecasts).
10. Health / longevity software everywhere
Social
11. A renewed understanding that “yes, we can.” That is, by successfully navigating out of the COVID-19 pandemic we can regain our collective belief in the value of science and consistent, rational government leadership
12. Work-From-Home will allow secondary cities and rural areas to share in the prosperity created by high paying knowledge based jobs
13. Recognize the importance of what is essential and also the need for social interactions and hopefully it will carry into the future (same about the importance of essential workers and teachers.)
14. Start of serious conversations about caregiving and care planning
15. Keeping hope up that life goes back to normal like it was in 2018-2019 because we are forgetting how we enjoyed our life before COVID
Political
16. 2021could be the beginning of international agreements on trade, climate, oceans, and more
17. Electronic and mail-in voting will be politically and culturally accepted as mainstream
18. Biden meets the challenge of good governance
19. Anarchists will fade away
20. Much needed political tranquility will prevail
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