Daniel Yergin won the Pulitzer Prize in 1991 for his book, "The Prize" which was also made into a documentary now available for streaming with commentary by Richard Chamberlain. It is a fascinating story of oil from its initial discovery in rural Pennsylvania in the 1860s to the first Gulf War in 1990. It was a brilliantly written geopolitical account of the economics of oil.
Yergin has authored several books on energy since his first book, including "The Quest." His newest book, "The New Map" continues the story from the first Gulf war through to the current day and looks ahead into the future.
There were several surprises in The New Map that provided me with a fresh new perspective:
The resurgence of US' dominant position in energy because of the discovery of shale and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). This resurgence completely reversed US' position from a net importer of oil to the top three exporter in the world. All attributed to innovator and businessman George Mitchell who discovered a new kind of drilling technique to get to oil deeper in the ground.
The second is CO2 emissions by the US. The GDP of the US has doubled since 1990. But CO2 emissions have stayed the same (thus halved in relationship to the economy). This, in the author's telling, was due to the innovation and use of LPG rather than public policy. Thus the book poses a very intriguing question to ponder - is it innovation or public policy that will help us reduce CO2 emissions?
I found the section on Russia the most informative. Russia looms large in geopolitical considerations. But two aspects puts it all in better perspective. The US's share of the world economy is 24%. The Russian share of the world economy is less than 2%. Russia is not even in the top 10 countries in the world in terms of economic output. Moreover, oil is 30% of their GDP and thus it is not a diversified economy either. By way of comparison the states of California, Texas and New York in the US are each bigger than the entire Russian economy.
There is a dramatic incident about how Russian President Vladmir Putin gets upset with the author when the question of shale is brought up, with the implication being that the global balance of power was tangibly impacted by the US resurgence as a supplier in the first two decades of this new century.
The section on China was fascinating too. Yergin gives an extensive treatment of the South China Sea both in terms of history and in terms of its strategic importance. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan all abut and have strategic interest in the South China Sea. 30% of global shipping passes through the South China Sea. In comparison Suez Canal carries 12% and 6% through the Panama Canal.
The author's observations on China and Russia were quite revealing in terms of where to focus one's geopolitical attentions, if one were to just follow the numbers!
The Middle East section is despairingly stagnant from the time of the first Gulf war. The triangular geopolitics of Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran appears to be an eternal intractable loop.
When it comes to describing the future of energy, the author loses the sure footing of a historian. His biggest idea is to describe the idea of Auto Tech. That is the combination of electric cars, ride hailing and AI software that in the 21st century should redefine the economics of energy and transportation.
As a final word, Yergin offers a rather unpromising description of world energy. Total global GDP is $81 trillion. Only 18% of energy demands to fuel this vast global economy is met by alternative energy sources. Regardless of how much share alternative energy increases, for the overall world economy to thrive and grow, there is no escape from coal and oil. The author does not dispute the idea that more alternative energy sources will be needed to combat the problems of climate crisis. He is just looking at the numbers and offering a description of where we stand and what is likely to happen in this century.
If an excellent read on the up to date descriptions of today's geopolitics is one's itch, Daniel Yergin's latest book gives it a satisfying scratch.
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